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Prediction markets on Arc
arky runs prediction markets on Arc, Circle's USDC-native blockchain. Every market is a YES/NO question, prices are quoted in USDC and read as probabilities, and winning shares redeem for 1 USDC each once the market settles onchain. Scout, arky's AI agent, can find markets, explain them and propose a bet that your wallet signs.
Guides to trading prediction markets in USDC on Arc: how the markets work, how arky settles them, and how arky compares with Polymarket, Kalshi and other venues.
Start here
- Prediction markets in USDC on ArcHow arky's markets are priced, settled and redeemed in native USDC, and where Scout fits in.
- How prediction markets workPrices as probabilities, a worked example, how to place a trade, and what research says about accuracy.
- Polymarket alternatives (2026)Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, Predict.fun and arky compared on chain, collateral and market model.
- arky vs PolymarketA head-to-head on chain, settlement, tools and what each one is built for.
What makes arky's prediction markets different
- USDC end to end. On Arc, USDC is the gas token, so the dollars you bet with also pay the network fee. No second token to buy (Arc docs).
- Settled onchain. Markets resolve YES, NO or Invalid in arky's prediction contract on Arc, and you redeem from your own wallet.
- One app for everything. The same terminal runs memecoins, spot trading and predictions. See the Arc trading terminal.
- An AI agent that reads the board. Scout answers from live arky data, cites the web, and proposes bets you approve.
Before you trade
Prediction markets are risky: you can lose the full amount you put into a position. Rules for prediction markets and event contracts differ by country and state, and arky does not give legal advice. Check the rules where you live and read the arky terms before you trade. New to Arc? Read how to trade on Arc with USDC and how to bridge USDC to Arc first.
FAQ
Is there a prediction market on Arc?
Yes. arky runs binary YES/NO prediction markets on Arc, Circle's layer-1 blockchain. Markets are priced and settled in native USDC, and you trade them at app.arky.bet with your own wallet.
What is a USDC prediction market?
It is a prediction market where shares are bought and paid out in USDC, a dollar stablecoin. On arky a winning share redeems for 1 USDC and a losing share for 0, so prices map directly to probabilities in dollars.
Do I need ETH to bet on arky?
No. On Arc, USDC is the gas token, so the USDC in your wallet pays both for your shares and for the network fee.
Is arky a Polymarket alternative?
For people who want prediction markets on Arc in USDC, with memecoins, spot trading and an AI agent in the same app, yes. Polymarket and Kalshi have far larger catalogues today; the comparison page lays out the trade-offs.